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Textainer ( TGH ) manages, leases and resells a fleet of intermodal freight containers. It is the largest independent lessor of container freights in the world. Textainer has been riding a wave of secular growth in international trade, and has therefore been aggressively expanding its fleet. At this point, the company 20 feet now has nearly 3 million twenty foot equivalent units, up from 2.4 million at the end of last year. This company is also a dividend play, with a yield of 5% which has attracted income investors.
Lately, however, Textainer has been downgraded by numerous research firms and the company's stock has taken a noticeable hit. Many are rightly concerned about a growing supply of freight containers and how it will impact Textainer's earnings. This article will look at Textainer's potential downside through the lens of earnings 20 feet and the cyclicality present in this line of business.
The above chart is the very "big picture" view of Textainer and its bull case. Use of containerized freight increases 20 feet at a rate of 1.5 to 2 times global GDP growth, making Textainer a levered play on global GDP. Global trade is still a secular growth story, and Textainer is one of the best-managed names in this space. 20 feet
In a nutshell, the company's strategy has been to acquire more and more containers in order to grow earnings. Since 2008 Textainer has spent capital well in excess of its operating cash flow. The above chart shows the fruits of that spending. Return on Equity has remained consistently above 20% for the last three years, so we know that the company's heavy investment has been working. In the last quarter revenue was up 9% year on year.
Unfortunately these overarching trends of success have been countered by some data points which point to, at the very least, weakness in this industry. Rental rates for containerized freight have been under pressure lately. This dash for supply 20 feet has been mostly from Asian providers fueled by cheap money, and the result is higher 20 feet prices and lower returns for boxes. Management believes that next year we could actually see container rates decline. This is more about the supply side of the equation than it is demand. That is, rates may decline not due to a drop-off in global trade but rather to excessive supply.
Anecdotal evidence certainly points to a new supply and demand dynamic. Management has noted that each time the company bids for a an order of containers, there are often 5 or 6 competitors vying to do the same thing. This should lead to "muted" topline growth in the near future. There are also stories of shippers no longer holding container inventory because these companies know they can get a container instantly.
Fleet utilization, as we can see here, seems to have peaked in 2011 at nearly 98%. Those were good days for Textainer. 20 feet Since then utilization has coasted downward, and judging from the latest management remarks this trend may well continue. This is an industry-wide issue, although that hardly makes the trend any less concerning.
Again we can see that declining margins are an industry-wide problem. Margins of CAI International ( CAP ) have fallen in tandem with Textainer. Note also that Textainer's net margins are the highest in its peer group.
Textainer is suffering from lower fleet utilization rates, lower net margins, fierce 20 feet competition in a market flush with supply, and consequently lower earnings for this year. Outlook for next year will likely be just as lukewarm. Is this all just a result of ample supply 20 feet in the container freight market? Or is it the sign of a general downturn in a cyclical and economically sensitive business.
We don't yet know, but remember that throughput of container freight should grow considerably above the rate of global GDP. Textainer's earnings are hitched to a strong trend indeed. We should therefore not be so quick to discount Textainer's 20 feet underlying 20 feet growth story unless we are about to enter a global recession.
Textainer's debt levels have been increasing due to the company's acquiring of additional containers. This quarter the fleet grew by 11.7% on a year-on-year basis. Given the current supply environment, we should expect the pace of acquisitions to abate. In the latest 20 feet conference call, CFO Hilliard Terry said Textainer was "not desperate" to expand capacity.
As for the dividend, it now sits at about 30% of operational cash flow. This means Textainer can easily pay its substantial dividend if it had to rely only on cash from operations. Management's policy regarding the dividend has always been on a quarter-to-quarter 20 feet basis. If capital spent on acquisitions were to drop drastically, a substantial 20 feet dividend hike would be possible if management was confident enough in the
Home | Portfolio | Market Currents 20 feet | Investing Ideas | Dividends & Income | ETFs | Macro View | Home | My Portfolio | Breaking News | Latest Analysis | Alpha-Rich Ideas | StockTalks | ALERTS | PRO
Textainer ( TGH ) manages, leases and resells a fleet of intermodal freight containers. It is the largest independent lessor of container freights in the world. Textainer has been riding a wave of secular growth in international trade, and has therefore been aggressively expanding its fleet. At this point, the company 20 feet now has nearly 3 million twenty foot equivalent units, up from 2.4 million at the end of last year. This company is also a dividend play, with a yield of 5% which has attracted income investors.
Lately, however, Textainer has been downgraded by numerous research firms and the company's stock has taken a noticeable hit. Many are rightly concerned about a growing supply of freight containers and how it will impact Textainer's earnings. This article will look at Textainer's potential downside through the lens of earnings 20 feet and the cyclicality present in this line of business.
The above chart is the very "big picture" view of Textainer and its bull case. Use of containerized freight increases 20 feet at a rate of 1.5 to 2 times global GDP growth, making Textainer a levered play on global GDP. Global trade is still a secular growth story, and Textainer is one of the best-managed names in this space. 20 feet
In a nutshell, the company's strategy has been to acquire more and more containers in order to grow earnings. Since 2008 Textainer has spent capital well in excess of its operating cash flow. The above chart shows the fruits of that spending. Return on Equity has remained consistently above 20% for the last three years, so we know that the company's heavy investment has been working. In the last quarter revenue was up 9% year on year.
Unfortunately these overarching trends of success have been countered by some data points which point to, at the very least, weakness in this industry. Rental rates for containerized freight have been under pressure lately. This dash for supply 20 feet has been mostly from Asian providers fueled by cheap money, and the result is higher 20 feet prices and lower returns for boxes. Management believes that next year we could actually see container rates decline. This is more about the supply side of the equation than it is demand. That is, rates may decline not due to a drop-off in global trade but rather to excessive supply.
Anecdotal evidence certainly points to a new supply and demand dynamic. Management has noted that each time the company bids for a an order of containers, there are often 5 or 6 competitors vying to do the same thing. This should lead to "muted" topline growth in the near future. There are also stories of shippers no longer holding container inventory because these companies know they can get a container instantly.
Fleet utilization, as we can see here, seems to have peaked in 2011 at nearly 98%. Those were good days for Textainer. 20 feet Since then utilization has coasted downward, and judging from the latest management remarks this trend may well continue. This is an industry-wide issue, although that hardly makes the trend any less concerning.
Again we can see that declining margins are an industry-wide problem. Margins of CAI International ( CAP ) have fallen in tandem with Textainer. Note also that Textainer's net margins are the highest in its peer group.
Textainer is suffering from lower fleet utilization rates, lower net margins, fierce 20 feet competition in a market flush with supply, and consequently lower earnings for this year. Outlook for next year will likely be just as lukewarm. Is this all just a result of ample supply 20 feet in the container freight market? Or is it the sign of a general downturn in a cyclical and economically sensitive business.
We don't yet know, but remember that throughput of container freight should grow considerably above the rate of global GDP. Textainer's earnings are hitched to a strong trend indeed. We should therefore not be so quick to discount Textainer's 20 feet underlying 20 feet growth story unless we are about to enter a global recession.
Textainer's debt levels have been increasing due to the company's acquiring of additional containers. This quarter the fleet grew by 11.7% on a year-on-year basis. Given the current supply environment, we should expect the pace of acquisitions to abate. In the latest 20 feet conference call, CFO Hilliard Terry said Textainer was "not desperate" to expand capacity.
As for the dividend, it now sits at about 30% of operational cash flow. This means Textainer can easily pay its substantial dividend if it had to rely only on cash from operations. Management's policy regarding the dividend has always been on a quarter-to-quarter 20 feet basis. If capital spent on acquisitions were to drop drastically, a substantial 20 feet dividend hike would be possible if management was confident enough in the
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